MIDTERMS HORSERACE REMAINS TIGHT AT 51-49 WITH DEMOCRATS HOLDING A 2-POINT LEAD, BUT LEAD FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS +2 AMONG LIKELY MIDTERM VOTERS
LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS HAVE MADE A DECISION ON THEIR MIDTERMS VOTE, WITH 69% SAYING THEY WILL VOTE
HALF OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY THE FAR LEFT AND 45% SAY THE GOP IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY THE FAR RIGHT
THREE-FOURTHS OF VOTERS WANT BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TO REJECT EXTREMIST VOICES WITHIN THEIR PARTIES
A PLURALITY OF VOTERS RELY ON SOCIAL MEDIA FOR INFORMATION ON POLITICS, EVEN AS 55% BELIEVE FEEDS ARE BEING MANIPULATED BY FOREIGN POWERS
56% OF VOTERS NOW SEE AI AS AN ECONOMIC PROBLEM, AND CLOSE TO 6 IN 10 SAY IT WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT
TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS WANT THE U.S. AND CANADA TO COME TO A NEW TRADE AGREEMENT; MAJORITY PRIORITIZES MAINTAINING A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP AND LOWER PRICES FOR CONSUMERS
66% OF VOTERS EXPECT AN IRANIAN UPRISING IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS DUE TO U.S. ECONOMIC AND MILITARY PRESSURE ON THE CURRENT REGIME
NEW YORK CITY, NY AND CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / September 2, 2026 / Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) today released the results of the August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 44%, 2 points up from July. His job approval is highest on fighting crime in America's cities (48%) and immigration (47%), and lowest on handling inflation (37%) and tariffs and trade (38%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the economy, midterm issues and messaging, U.S.-Canada trade, and conflicts in the Middle East. Download the key results here.
"Voters are feeling slightly more optimistic across the board, with Trump, Democratic, and GOP approval on the up," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "They recognize the weight of the upcoming midterm elections and want to hear from their politicians on inflation, fraud, and AI."
VOTERS FEELING SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COUNTRY
37% of voters say the country is on the right track (+2 pts., July 2026).
48% of voters say the U.S. economy is strong today (+2), and 32% say their personal financial situation is improving (+2).
The Republican Party approval rating is at 45% (+2), while the Democratic Party approval rating is at 47% (+4), its highest level since October 2024. Congressional approval is at 34% (+2).
Among key politicians today, voters have a more favorable view of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+4 net favorable), and Marco Rubio (+4), and a more unfavorable view of Abdul El-Sayed (-18), Chuck Schumer (-17), and Zohran Mamdani (-14).
Inflation and the economy remain voters' top concerns, though the economy ticked down in salience (-3 pts., July 2026) while the U.S.-Iran conflict increased in salience (+5), with 20% of voters citing it is one of the most important issues facing the country today.
MAJORITY OF TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG SUPPORT
10 out of 13 key Trump policy positions continue to see majority support. His most popular policies are lowering prescription drug prices (84% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (74%), and requiring proof of citizenship to vote (70%).
Trump's least popular policy positions include placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries (40%), allowing immigration authorities to access information on low-income families (48%), and eliminating mail-in voting (50%).
DEMOCRATS HOLD A 2-PT. EDGE IN CONGRESSIONAL HORSERACE BUT REPUBLICANS ARE 2-PT. AHEAD AMONG LIKELY MIDTERM VOTERS
69% of voters say they are planning to vote in the upcoming 2026 Congressional midterm elections (Democrats: 57%; Republicans: 63%; Independents: 38%).
The horserace is split 51-49 among general voters with Democrats holding a 2-pt. lead with 54% of Independents leaning Democrat, but among likely midterm voters, Republicans hold a 2-pt. lead.
40% of voters plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 24% plan to vote in-person before, and 19% plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot.
46% of voters say their vote is decided for the midterms, while 27% say they are leaning toward certain candidates but could still change their mind. 19% of voters remain undecided, including 28% of Independents.
82% say this midterm election is important, with 51% saying it is extremely important.
Looking to 2028, Kamala Harris (+5) and J.D. Vance (+2) remain the most favored candidates for president among voters from their respective parties.
INFLATION, FRAUD, AND AI CONCERNS ARE KEY ISSUES HEADING INTO MIDTERMS
51% of voters say the Democratic Party is being taken over by the far left. 55% of voters say the Republican Party being taken over by the far right is an exaggerated view.
77% of voters say the Democratic Party should reject extremists like Hasan Piker, and 75% of voters believe the Republican Party should reject extremists like Candace Owens, including a majority across political parties.
55% of voters say the Trump administration is more responsible for inflation over the last few years over Biden.
56% of voters say people who are committing fraud and getting payments they don't deserve is more of a concern than the rich getting more.
56% of voters say AI is more of a problem for our economy than an answer to our problems (Democrats: 63%; Republicans: 45%; Independents: 63%). 58% believe it will create tens of millions of unemployed people.
38% of voters, a plurality, say they rely on social media for information on politics. 31% say they rely on network news, and 23% say they rely on cable TV.
55% of voters think social media is being manipulated by foreign powers to affect our elections.
MIDTERM MESSAGING THAT TAKES TO TASK THE OTHER PARTY TESTS MOST EFFECTIVE AMONG VOTERS
Among key tested Democratic messaging, voters find cost of living and women's rights messages to be the most believable, with messaging involving direct attacks on Trump testing more effective.
Among key tested Republican messaging, voters find messages involving attacks on Democrats for woke DEI policies, open borders, and higher taxes most believable. Messaging attacking Democrats on being too far left tested effective as well.
VOTERS BELIEVE U.S. AND CANADA SHOULD REACH A NEW TRADE AGREEMENT; PRIORITIZE MAINTAINING A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP AND LOWER PRICES FOR CONSUMERS
60% of voters say it is more important to keep prices lower for consumers than protect U.S. industries and jobs, including a majority across political parties.
58% of voters say maintaining a positive U.S.-Canada relationship is more important than cracking down on any trade imbalance between the two and protecting American jobs (Democrats: 74%, Republicans: 42%, Independents: 59%).
63% of voters have heard about U.S. trade negotiations with Canada.
64% of voters believe U.S. trade with Canada is mostly fair, though 67% say the countries should reach a new trade agreement.
68% of voters say the U.S. is more responsible for the breakdown in trade negotiations last week, and 55% say the U.S. is not justified in imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. 59% of voters say Canada's matching 50% tariff on American goods was a reasonable response.
62% of voters expect the 50% tariff on Canadian goods will raise prices.
68% of voters oppose changing the name of Lake Ontario to "Lake America."
TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS EXPECT IRANIAN UPRISING DUE TO U.S. PRESSURE ON CURRENT REGIME
65% of voters say they are following developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict closely. 43%, a plurality, believe the U.S. is winning.
65% of voters say Iranians are not serious in their negotiations and are just working to buy time, including a majority across political parties.
69% of voters say Iran should not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz, including a majority across political parties. 72% say the U.S. should resume use of force, sanctions, and blockades if Iran does not give up control of the Strait.
57% of voters say Trump's handling of the Strait is increasing the risk of a longer and wider conflict. 53% believe Trump should be willing to compromise if it reduces risk of further conflict.
66% of voters say it is likely there will be an uprising of the Iranian people in the next 6 months due to current U.S. economic and military pressure on the Iranian regime.
53% of voters oppose Trump's handling of the conflict so far.
MOST VOTERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISRAEL OVER HAMAS, BELIEVING TERRORIST GROUPS ARE ACTIVELY TRYING TO DESTROY IT
70% of voters continue to support Israel over Hamas.
76% of voters believe there are terrorist groups on the borders of Israel today, including a majority across political parties and age groups. 42%, a plurality, believe the groups are trying to destroy Israel.
72% of voters say Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of a long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
74% of voters say Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish homeland.
The August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on August 28-30, 2026, among 2,100 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE: Stagwell
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